Environmental restrictions on production plus cost increases helped boost the period

 

At present, the market focuses mainly on the following points: Heating production in the Jisha River is limited to 15%; during the National Day, the vice governor of Hebei inspected the glass production line and found that the illegal production line required rectification; during the National Day, soda ash continued to rise by 200 yuan. Together with the decline in the disk to below 1300, further exploration of space is limited. After the disk fell below 1,300, it rose yesterday. We believe that on the one hand, it comes from the bottom support of the cost side. The most important thing is the recent speculation on the limited production of the Shahe River.

 

1, rising costs, strong bottom support

 

In terms of soda ash, the environmental protection inspections settled in major soda production areas in August, Qinghai, Shandong, Sichuan, and other places. Soda ash makers have limited start-up load. With safety inspections, construction starts are further affected and supply continues to be tight; inventory also sees soda ash manufacturers as a whole. Stocks in the 18-19 million tons, while the downstream glass factory sodium carbonate inventory to maintain more than 15-20 days, the entire industry inventory is low, tight supply, increased manufacturers voice; plus cost-end limestone, coal, raw salt prices, cost help Push; Downstream industry demand is strong, so prices rose rapidly after August, the entire August-September rose about 550 yuan, during the National Day and continue to rise 200 yuan, the current purchase price of Shahe region soda is 2,400 yuan, has exceeded the high of the same period last year , set a record high since 2011. From the perspective of soda ash alone, the cost of glass has increased by 150 yuan from August to now. In terms of coal, Shenmu's pit price also rose from 480 yuan at the end of June to nearly 580 yuan at present. In addition, Shahe limited production by 15%, the cost of fuel and fixed costs are also spread out, which is equivalent to a cost increase of around 30 yuan. Throughout the measurement, the current cost of the Shahe River is nearly 1,300 yuan, so after the price fell below 1300, the exploration space was limited. In the early stage, the factory disguisedly shifted the cost increase to spot price increase, and gross profit could maintain about 20%. During the National Day, after the limited production plus the increase of the soda price, the profit was greatly swallowed, and the current gross profit decreased to 13.3%.

 

2. Shahe implemented limited production on schedule

 

Before the National Day, Shahe released the restricted production announcement. It plans to limit the heating season on October 1st. At that time, the market still had some skepticism about its enforcement efforts. It was believed that reducing pollution through limited production would not be feasible. Finally, as scheduled, the Shahe River began to implement a 15% restriction on production from October 1st. This is the first time that the glass industry has effectively implemented the production restriction measures. Shahe limited production by 15%, which translates to 2.39% of the country's total production capacity. In the long run, Coupled with the prospect of production line ignition, the impact is limited, but it does not rule out short-term speculation. In addition, during the National Day, the vice governor of Hebei inspected the Shahe glass production line and found that there were problems such as unapproved prior construction, inconsistent approval, and unlicensed discharge. The company was required to speed up rectification. If the treatment is not good, it may be necessary to stop production directly, further boosting the hype for capacity reduction. .

 

3, outlook outlook

 

First of all, as the cost rises, we believe that the effect of cost on prices is more reflected in the bottom support and does not directly lead to the reason for the price increase. Therefore, after the price falls below 1300, it will continue to explore the space is limited, and the price rebound is also reasonable. Sex. The impact of price increases is mainly on the supply and demand side. In the long-term, the real estate control policy has been further increased, the risk of declining demand has intensified, and the data also shows that gold 9 and sales data during the National Day period are weaker than the previous year, and the sales decline will be weak. Further affecting the source of real estate funds is not conducive to investment. On the supply side, whether the duration of production of the Shahe River is really at the end of the heating season requires constant attention. In other areas, there may be a reduction in the production of cold-repaired production lines. In the long run, the limited production limit will be limited. Operation, the current exchange rate of Shahe factory to 1450-1500 yuan disk, the main short-term recommendations wait and see, long-term demand side control is still in decline risk is still to maintain the pattern of weak supply and demand in the off-season judgments, short-term thoughts dominated by rally. Continue to focus on follow-up industry inventory. Risk point: The production restriction policy is issued elsewhere, the production restriction measures are refined, and the cold repair line accelerates cold repair.